Dr Nye Davies
Lecturer in Politics at Cardiff University and a member of the Wales Governance Centre. His research focuses on the Labour Party, Welsh politics and the study of ideas.
Email: DaviesN30@cardiff.ac.uk
Twitter: @Nye_Davies
UK Election 2024
Section 3: The nations and regions
25. Have voters fallen out of love with the SNP? (Dr Lynn Bennie)
26. The spectre of Sturgeon still looms large in gendered coverage in Scotland (Melody House, Dr Fiona McKay)
27. The personalisation of Scottish politics in a UK General Election (Dr Michael Higgins, Dr Maike Dinger)
28. Competence, change and continuity: a tale of two nations (Dr Will Kitson)
29. Election success, but problems remain for Labour in Wales (Dr Nye Davies)
30. Four ways in which Northern Ireland’s own seismic results will affect the new Parliament (Prof Katy Hayward)
31. Bringing People together or pulling them apart? What Facebook ads say about the NI campaign (Dr Paul Reilly)
32. A New Dawn For Levelling Up? (Prof Arianna Giovannini)
33. Who defines Britain? National identity at the heart of the 2024 UK General Election (Dr Tabitha Baker)
The Labour Party was rightly delighted by the General Election Results, ending fourteen years of Conservative government in a landslide victory. In Wales, the party extended its over one-hundred years of dominance, winning twenty-seven out of thirty-two seats and seeing Wales become a Tory-free nation.
However, when we dig deeper into the results the situation for Labour in Wales looks potentially less favourable than it does on first viewing. While Labour’s vote share rose by 1.6% across the UK, it experienced a decline of 3.9% in Wales. Considered in the context of Labour’s victory across the UK, the results in Wales should cause concern.
As the party reflects on the results in Wales, it is likely to turn its attention to Cardiff Bay. As the election campaign was getting underway, the Welsh Labour first minister, Vaughan Gething, lost a confidence vote in the Senedd. This was the culmination of months of controversy over a £200,000 donation Gething received from a company whose owner had been convicted of dumping waste on the Gwent Levels. Gething and his allies have insisted that the vote was a Tory gimmick organised as part of their election tactics. The vote was non-binding, and Gething has been adamant that he will not resign, bolstered perhaps by receiving the support of Keir Starmer. Even still, Gething is unpopular amongst the Welsh public.
This is a crisis not seen in Welsh Labour for quite some time. The Marxist theorist Antonio Gramsci distinguished between crises that give rise to “political criticism of a minor, day-to-day character” and those that lead to “socio-historical criticism” beyond the political world.
While a crisis centred on the first minister might appear to fall into the first category, it could yet prove symptomatic of something deeper at play.
Labour has risen to dominance in Wales by successfully articulating the interests of several different groups at once. The party has positioned itself as the defender of working-class interests, often by using radical language and reminding voters of its strong links to Labour traditions – particularly Aneurin Bevan, who led the creation of the NHS.
It also positions itself as the party of Wales, appealing to voters in terms of both identity and class. Former first minister Mark Drakeford once declared that “social solidarity is part of what it means to be Labour, and what it means to be Welsh”.
Yet, sustained single party dominance has negative consequences. As noted by the political scientist TJ Pempel, the dominant party can shape the nation and political landscape in its own image, but a failure to adapt can sow the seeds for its own destruction.
Welsh historian Gwyn Alf Williams complained in the 1980s that Labour dominance in Wales had hardened into an oligarchy “characterised by accommodation snug within the system”. Williams argued that, with its politicians “dependent on the support and manipulation of powerful trade unions”, the party was falling into corruption and nepotism.
Gething did not break any rules in accepting the campaign donation. But a link with such a businessperson, as well as the controversial union machinations that took place during the leadership contest that delivered Gething to power, suggests a party detached from the electoral base that sustains it. Added to changing demographics, significant poverty and struggling public services, the recent drop in support for Labour in Wales and the unpopularity of Gething himself might suggest that what appears to be a specific crisis about a single politician and his campaign donations, could lead to a longer-term weakening of the party’s electoral base.
Welsh Labour politicians have consistently argued that having two Labour governments, one in Westminster and the other in the Senedd, will allow the Welsh government to achieve its ambitions.
But even here there is the risk of potential tension. Starmer has been clear that a Labour government will not be able to turn on the spending taps. Welsh Labour might claim that having a Labour government in both Cardiff and Westminster will be beneficial, but if the money doesn’t come, where then does the blame lie for poor government performance?
If Welsh Labour is seen as not defending Wales’ interests, will voters look for alternatives? Will Plaid Cymru capitalise on its best ever result and successfully capture voters from Welsh Labour’s voting coalition?
The extent to which this decline in support is a blip or a long-term trend remains to be seen, but the SNP’s fate in Scotland shows that a once dominant party can collapse fairly rapidly. Even before the SNP, Scottish Labour’s own history – from dominance to defeat – is indicative of how longer-term success can be eroded.
It is unwise to write off Labour in Wales. However, with the controversies surrounding Gething not going away, now focusing on the sacking of Hannah Blythyn from the Welsh Government, the 2026 Senedd election could prove to be a seismic event in Welsh politics. If Gething and Welsh Labour are unable to inspire confidence, what is currently only an immediate crisis could spiral into far-reaching consequences for Labour in Wales.
A version of this article was previously published in The Conversation under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivatives licence: https://theconversation.com/can-election-success-draw-a-line-under-welsh-labours-crisis-231940
