Prof Katy Hayward
Professor of Political Sociology at Queen’s University Belfast and Member of the Royal Irish Academy. She is an Eisenhower Fellow, a Europe’s Futures Fellow and a former Senior Fellow of UK in a Changing Europe, specialising in the impact of Brexit on the island of Ireland.
Email: k.hayward@qub.ac.uk
X: @hayward_katy
UK Election 2024
Section 3: The nations and regions
25. Have voters fallen out of love with the SNP? (Dr Lynn Bennie)
26. The spectre of Sturgeon still looms large in gendered coverage in Scotland (Melody House, Dr Fiona McKay)
27. The personalisation of Scottish politics in a UK General Election (Dr Michael Higgins, Dr Maike Dinger)
28. Competence, change and continuity: a tale of two nations (Dr Will Kitson)
29. Election success, but problems remain for Labour in Wales (Dr Nye Davies)
30. Four ways in which Northern Ireland’s own seismic results will affect the new Parliament (Prof Katy Hayward)
31. Bringing People together or pulling them apart? What Facebook ads say about the NI campaign (Dr Paul Reilly)
32. A New Dawn For Levelling Up? (Prof Arianna Giovannini)
33. Who defines Britain? National identity at the heart of the 2024 UK General Election (Dr Tabitha Baker)
The 2024 General Election has produced an ‘earthquake’ in Northern Ireland just as seismic as in the rest of the United Kingdom. There are four ways in which these results will have an impact – sooner or later – on the new UK Parliament and Government.
First, expect a new swagger from Sinn Féin. They are now the Northern Ireland (NI) party with the largest number of MPs. 2019 was the first time nationalist MPs from NI outnumbered unionist ones, with the two from the SDLP and seven from Sinn Féin versus the eight of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Both nationalist parties held onto their seats this time but the DUP’s loss of three seats means that it is now very much second place.
This trend has been evident in the last two elections in Northern Ireland, i.e. Sinn Féin holding ground as the DUP imploded, and so becoming the largest party by default. This General Election completes the hat trick: Sinn Féin holds more seats than the DUP in local councils, the NI Assembly and now the House of Commons. Senior figures in the party were quick to claim this as further evidence of a trend towards “constitutional change on the island”. Although Sinn Féin has an abstentionist policy towards Westminster, they make the most of being there. In the fallout from the SNP’s disastrous performance, Sinn Féin will be keen to remind the movers and shakers in SW1 that the break-up of the UK is a nearing possibility.
Determined to counter any such narratives will be a new NI MP on the green benches from the polar opposite perspective. Jim Allister of the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) is a forceful enough character in his own right to make an impact on Westminster. Allister is the new MP for North Antrim, having managed to convince enough voters there that Ian Paisley Jr was, believe it or not, not sufficiently unionist.
Having been the TUV’s only MLA in the NI Assembly since he founded the party, as a break-away from the DUP, in 2007, Allister is recognised across the spectrum as a wily parliamentarian and an indomitable orator. He is expected to sit away from his fellow MPs from NI – none of whom regard him warmly – alongside Reform UK, with whom his party formed an alliance this year. Nigel Farage’s endorsement of Ian Paisley – Allister’s rival – caused temporary awkwardness but is unlikely to prevent the two from joining forces on their common concerns: the Union, immigration and Brexit.
In fact, thirdly, the UK-EU relationship will continue to be a priority issue for all MPs from NI. We know from our polling in Queen’s University Belfast that even strong unionists (with the exception of TUV supporters) want that relationship to be a closer one if it diminishes the significance of the Windsor Framework, i.e. Northern Ireland’s unique post-Brexit arrangements. If the new Government decide to move in that direction, they will find support from 17 of NI’s MPs.
Intensity to the issue will be added by the fact that the implementation of the Windsor Framework is due to reach another milestone come the Autumn and the EU will be watching closely to see that this happens. It also remains key to the future shape of UK immigration policy, thanks to ramifications of the Windsor Framework and 1998 Good Friday/Belfast Agreement. Westminster will be reminded of this by NI MPs, from opposing positions. Northern Ireland will thus remain at the crux of some of the most politically-sensitive and complex issues facing the new Government.
Finally, despite the fillip to hardline nationalism and hardline unionism in these results, what is really striking is the diversity that now exists among the NI cohort. In the snap election of 2017, only one seat was returned that wasn’t held by the DUP or Sinn Féin. This time we have representation from no fewer than six parties plus an Independent. This reflects in part the tussle within unionism, which is clearly no longer content to be represented by one dominant party. The DUP’s response to its losses has been primarily to criticise other unionist parties for ‘splitting the unionist vote’. Some Irish republicans have made similar criticisms of the SDLP for winning votes from nationalists who might otherwise have voted Sinn Féin, and thus outstripped the DUP.
Yet surely the message delivered by the NI electorate on 4th July is that two-bloc politics are inadequate. There are any number of reasons why voters chose not to support either of the largest parties, but the outcome brings new variety in the representation from NI – and new freshness too. Of those who take their seats in the Commons, only seven are returning MPs.
Each one of Northern Ireland’s 18 representatives will be conscious of the opportunity brought by this earthquake election and keen to play their part in exploiting it. Whether they do so in collaboration or in competition depends very much on how the new Government approaches the Union itself and its relationship with its neighbours.
