Prof Becky Tunstall
Emerita Professor of Housing at Centre for Housing Policy at the University of York, and Visiting Professor at the Centre of Analysis for Social Exclusion, LSE
Email: Becky.tunstall@york.ac.uk
UK Election 2024
Section 5: Policy and strategy
50. It’s the cost-of-living-crisis, stupid! (Prof Aeron Davis)
51. The last pre-war vote? Defence and foreign policy in the 2024 Election (Dr Russell Foster)
52. The 2024 UK general election and the absence of foreign policy (Dr Victoria Honeyman)
53. Fractious consensus: defence policy at the 2024 General Election (Dr Ben Jones)
54. The psycho-politics of climate denial in the 2024 UK election (Prof Candida Yates, Dr Jenny Alexander)
55. How will the Labour government fare and what should they do better? (Prof Rick Stafford and team)
56. Finding the environment: climate obstructionism and environmental movements on TikTok (Dr Abi Rhodes)
57. Irregular migration: ‘Stop the boats’ vs ‘Smash the Gangs’ (Prof Alex Balch)
58. The sleeping dog of ‘Europe: UK relations with the EU as a non-issue (Prof Simon Usherwood)
59. Labour: a very conservative housing manifesto (Prof Becky Tunstall)
60. Why the Labour Government must abolish the two-child benefit limit policy (Dr Yekaterina Chzhen)
61. Take the next right: mainstream parties’ positions on gender and LGBTQ+ equality issues (Dr Louise Luxton)
The UK has serious housing problems – high costs, overcrowding, poor quality, frustrated movers-out, buyers and downsizers, homelessness and carbon-dependency. These problems are increasingly acute, widespread and vocalised. But housing is a tricky area: many problems are long-standing and reform-resistant; many solutions are expensive. And most voters are well, affordably and securely housed.
So what has Labour promised on housing in its winning manifesto, and what were the alternatives?
In brutal summary, none of the three main UK parties’ plans could have substantially altered current worsening problems, or met housing’s contribution to net zero. For Labour, burdened by the Ming vase (a perceived fragile chance of winning a majority), spending and details were to be avoided. They have mirrored Conservative housing budgets and policy, making for a very conservative housing manifesto. The argument that spending on housing is investment not cost has failed again. The argument that spending on mass retrofitting is essential has been ignored. The IFS described a conspiracy of silence on inevitable public spending cuts. Conservative and Labour agreed to a real-terms decrease in spending on housing after 2024/25. Austerity on austerity: the amount spent on housing in England by UK central government fell 45% 2009/10 – 2015/16, and in 2022/23 it was still 20% lower in real terms (for a larger population). There was another conspiracy on reaching climate goals.
All parties but Reform planned substantial housebuilding – but how will they manage it and who will gain? Conservatives pledged 1.6m new homes over five years or 320,000 a year in England, clearly wanting to (just) out-promise Labour. But they hardly mentioned affordable housing. Labour offered 1.5m, and the ‘biggest increase in social and affordable house building in a generation’. Careful wording: there haven’t been any ‘big’ increases over the past 30 years. In contrast, Greens offered 150,000 new social rented homes a year. On top, all Greens’ and Lib Dems’ new homes would have met high green standards, while Labour and Conservative only made broad promises on quality. As context, over 2019-24 an average 200,000 homes were built annually, the vast majority for ownership, and not low carbon. To achieve their building goals, Labour will restore mandatory local targets abolished by the Conservatives. Signalling pragmatism (even machismo), they will allow some development on ‘grey’ green belt land and, with Lib Dems, promised more money for austerity-hit planners. Labour will make compulsory purchase cheaper for councils – but Lib Dems would have allowed them to buy at current use value (at the expense of landowners). More radically still, Greens planned to manage housing demand and costs, aiming for no real growth in housing prices, alongside rent control. With Plaid Cymru and the SNP, they emphasised efficient use of existing homes, reducing vacancies and restricting second homes and short-term lets.
To help people afford to buy, Conservatives promised to continue the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme, due to end in 2025, which provides government guarantees to lenders so people can buy with a 5% deposit (£12k on average). Labour mirrored again, even though the policy it was built on, Help to Buy (2012-23) was at best partly successful, and appeared to encourage price inflation and was wholly ineffective at helping the worst off.
Conservatives said little about benefits of any kind. Labour promised to improve fairness and efficiency, not generosity. In contrast, Greens promised increases, and while it cannot change the rules, the SNP will continue to protect Scots from the ‘bedroom tax’.
In England, all parties except Reform promised something like the Renters Reform Bill, a victim of the early dissolution, including ending ‘no fault’ evictions for private renters. Labour will require homes to meet ‘minimum’ standards. Greens and Plaid planned limits on when and how much rent could increase. The SNP started this in Scotland this year, following pandemic measures. Labour will, more modestly, allow tenants to challenge big rent increases.
All parties promised some retrofitting (except Reform). Conservatives offered £6bn for 1m homes (4% of the total in England) over three years, but in office postponed targets. After trimming its plans, Labour mirrored again and will spend £1.1bn a year (£5.5bn over five years), but mentioned no targets. Lib Dems promised to end fuel poverty, and to restore the duty on landlords to provide homes at Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) C. More dramatically, Greens offered £29bn on insulation to EPC B over five years, and more for low-carbon heating.
Current light taxation of housing represents support for owners and landlords. Conservatives would have extended Truss’s 2022-25 holiday on stamp duty for most First Time Buyers. Labour will increase stamp duty, but only for foreign buyers. Lib Dems would have done the same for UK owners of second homes. Greens would have raised taxes markedly.
In 2019, the Conservatives promised to end rough sleeping by 2024, a goal achieved by Major, Blair and a special pandemic effort, albeit temporarily. However, in 2024 there were thousands on the streets, and Conservatives promised only to ‘continue’ work. And Labour unambitiously mirrored again.
Now the Ming vase has made it across the parquet, will Labour try to break with the pro-middle class, pro-owner, pro-older status quo in housing policy? The smaller parties provided plenty of ideas, but few without cost.
